BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
DCA→SDF

Washington, DC (DCA) to Louisville, KY (SDF) flight delay odds

70.1% of 1,031 official scheduled DCA-to-SDF flights arrived on time; 15.7% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 6.5% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALHigher disruption
70.1%arrived on time
15.7%30+ min late
6.5%cancelled
1,031scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late8.3%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late3.4%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.1%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+7.9 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for DCA to SDF?

Among qualifying DCA-to-SDF departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 78.5% of 339 flights. Evening was lowest at 64.5% across 437 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning33978.5%8.6%6.2%
Afternoon24168.5%21.2%2.5%
Evening43764.5%18.8%8.9%

Which weekday was most reliable for DCA to SDF?

Among qualifying DCA-to-SDF weekday results, Saturday had the highest on-time rate: 80.0% of 130 flights. Wednesday was lowest at 61.8% across 152 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday15072.0%14.0%8.7%
Tuesday15569.0%18.1%6.5%
Wednesday15261.8%20.4%5.9%
Thursday14770.1%16.3%5.4%
Friday14869.6%15.5%4.7%
Saturday13080.0%9.2%4.6%
Sunday14969.8%15.4%9.4%

Which airline was most reliable for DCA to SDF?

Among qualifying DCA-to-SDF airline results, Republic Airways had the highest on-time rate: 70.1% of 441 flights. PSA Airlines was lowest at 69.9% across 572 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
PSA Airlines57269.9%15.4%6.3%
Republic Airways44170.1%16.3%6.8%
Envoy Air1376.9%7.7%7.7%
American Airlines580.0%20.0%0.0%

Which month was most reliable for DCA to SDF?

Among qualifying DCA-to-SDF month results, October 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 87.1% of 93 flights. July 2025 was lowest at 45.5% across 88 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20258845.5%18.2%25.0%
August 20258864.8%17.0%5.7%
September 20259080.0%14.4%0.0%
October 20259387.1%8.6%0.0%
November 20258466.7%20.2%6.0%
December 20256350.8%27.0%7.9%
January 20268362.7%16.9%13.3%
February 20268465.5%19.0%7.1%
March 20269268.5%13.0%4.3%
April 20269086.7%13.3%0.0%
May 20269085.6%10.0%1.1%
June 20268669.8%15.1%9.3%

What drove DCA to SDF delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded DCA-to-SDF delay category, accounting for 54.3% of 16,340 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline24.5%
Late aircraft54.3%
National airspace13.4%
Weather7.6%
Security0.2%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.