BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
TPAMDW

Tampa, FL (TPA) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

Historically, 73.0% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 1,602 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
73.0%arrived on time
14.5%30+ min late
2.0%cancelled
1,602scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late6.4%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.2%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.9%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+10.5 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning42886.2%4.4%2.3%
Late morning33680.4%10.1%0.9%
Afternoon38271.5%15.2%2.1%
Evening32656.1%25.2%2.5%
Night13057.7%30.8%2.3%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday23270.7%17.2%1.3%
Tuesday21774.7%12.9%2.8%
Wednesday21177.3%10.4%0.9%
Thursday22373.1%13.9%1.8%
Friday23275.9%12.5%2.2%
Saturday24172.6%14.5%3.3%
Sunday24667.9%19.5%1.6%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines1,54972.8%14.4%2.0%
Frontier Airlines5379.2%18.9%1.9%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202516371.2%19.6%0.6%
August 202512972.9%17.1%0.0%
September 202511185.6%7.2%0.0%
October 202512377.2%12.2%0.0%
November 202513174.8%9.9%9.9%
December 202513568.1%20.0%0.0%
January 202612884.4%8.6%0.0%
February 202611566.1%15.7%0.9%
March 202618265.9%17.6%6.6%
April 202613377.4%7.5%3.0%
May 202612469.4%16.9%0.8%
June 202612868.0%18.8%0.0%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline24.1%
Late aircraft53.3%
National airspace18.9%
Weather3.5%
Security0.2%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.