BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
TPA→MDW

Tampa, FL (TPA) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

73.0% of 1,602 official scheduled TPA-to-MDW flights arrived on time; 14.5% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 2.0% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
73.0%arrived on time
14.5%30+ min late
2.0%cancelled
1,602scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late6.4%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.2%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.9%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+10.5 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for TPA to MDW?

Among qualifying TPA-to-MDW departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 86.2% of 428 flights. Evening was lowest at 56.1% across 326 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning42886.2%4.4%2.3%
Late morning33680.4%10.1%0.9%
Afternoon38271.5%15.2%2.1%
Evening32656.1%25.2%2.5%
Night13057.7%30.8%2.3%

Which weekday was most reliable for TPA to MDW?

Among qualifying TPA-to-MDW weekday results, Wednesday had the highest on-time rate: 77.3% of 211 flights. Sunday was lowest at 67.9% across 246 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday23270.7%17.2%1.3%
Tuesday21774.7%12.9%2.8%
Wednesday21177.3%10.4%0.9%
Thursday22373.1%13.9%1.8%
Friday23275.9%12.5%2.2%
Saturday24172.6%14.5%3.3%
Sunday24667.9%19.5%1.6%

Which airline was most reliable for TPA to MDW?

Among qualifying TPA-to-MDW airline results, Frontier Airlines had the highest on-time rate: 79.2% of 53 flights. Southwest Airlines was lowest at 72.8% across 1,549 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines1,54972.8%14.4%2.0%
Frontier Airlines5379.2%18.9%1.9%

Which month was most reliable for TPA to MDW?

Among qualifying TPA-to-MDW month results, September 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 85.6% of 111 flights. March 2026 was lowest at 65.9% across 182 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202516371.2%19.6%0.6%
August 202512972.9%17.1%0.0%
September 202511185.6%7.2%0.0%
October 202512377.2%12.2%0.0%
November 202513174.8%9.9%9.9%
December 202513568.1%20.0%0.0%
January 202612884.4%8.6%0.0%
February 202611566.1%15.7%0.9%
March 202618265.9%17.6%6.6%
April 202613377.4%7.5%3.0%
May 202612469.4%16.9%0.8%
June 202612868.0%18.8%0.0%

What drove TPA to MDW delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded TPA-to-MDW delay category, accounting for 53.3% of 22,222 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline24.1%
Late aircraft53.3%
National airspace18.9%
Weather3.5%
Security0.2%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.