BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MDW→TPA

Chicago, IL (MDW) to Tampa, FL (TPA) flight delay odds

75.6% of 1,607 official scheduled MDW-to-TPA flights arrived on time; 13.7% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 1.4% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
75.6%arrived on time
13.7%30+ min late
1.4%cancelled
1,607scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late6.8%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.2%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.3%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+7.8 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for MDW to TPA?

Among qualifying MDW-to-TPA departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 89.8% of 499 flights. Night was lowest at 31.6% across 57 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning49989.8%4.8%0.8%
Late morning24081.7%8.8%1.2%
Afternoon43275.0%13.9%1.2%
Evening37960.4%24.5%2.4%
Night5731.6%38.6%3.5%

Which weekday was most reliable for MDW to TPA?

Among qualifying MDW-to-TPA weekday results, Wednesday had the highest on-time rate: 83.4% of 211 flights. Sunday was lowest at 68.2% across 242 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday23670.8%17.4%3.0%
Tuesday21782.5%10.1%0.5%
Wednesday21183.4%7.1%0.5%
Thursday22774.0%14.5%2.2%
Friday23775.9%12.7%1.3%
Saturday23775.9%12.2%2.1%
Sunday24268.2%20.7%0.4%

Which airline was most reliable for MDW to TPA?

Among qualifying MDW-to-TPA airline results, Frontier Airlines had the highest on-time rate: 83.3% of 54 flights. Southwest Airlines was lowest at 75.3% across 1,553 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines1,55375.3%13.9%1.4%
Frontier Airlines5483.3%7.4%1.9%

Which month was most reliable for MDW to TPA?

Among qualifying MDW-to-TPA month results, February 2026 had the highest on-time rate: 87.8% of 115 flights. July 2025 was lowest at 60.1% across 163 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202516360.1%27.0%2.5%
August 202512976.7%10.1%0.8%
September 202511187.4%7.2%0.0%
October 202512382.1%8.9%0.0%
November 202513378.2%7.5%5.3%
December 202513571.1%20.0%0.0%
January 202612878.9%10.9%0.0%
February 202611587.8%4.3%0.9%
March 202618268.1%16.5%3.3%
April 202613280.3%11.4%2.3%
May 202612477.4%12.1%0.0%
June 202613269.7%21.2%0.8%

What drove MDW to TPA delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded MDW-to-TPA delay category, accounting for 45.9% of 20,161 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline33.5%
Late aircraft45.9%
National airspace17.9%
Weather1.8%
Security0.9%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.