BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
SMF→ORD

Sacramento, CA (SMF) to Chicago, IL (ORD) flight delay odds

75.3% of 1,324 official scheduled SMF-to-ORD flights arrived on time; 13.8% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 1.1% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
75.3%arrived on time
13.8%30+ min late
1.1%cancelled
1,324scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late7.6%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late3.5%all scheduled flights
Diverted1.0%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+9.8 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for SMF to ORD?

Among qualifying SMF-to-ORD departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 86.4% of 361 flights. Afternoon was lowest at 60.0% across 375 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning36186.4%5.0%1.7%
Late morning30081.3%11.7%0.3%
Afternoon37560.0%24.3%0.3%
Night28875.0%13.5%2.1%

Which weekday was most reliable for SMF to ORD?

Among qualifying SMF-to-ORD weekday results, Thursday had the highest on-time rate: 78.5% of 191 flights. Sunday was lowest at 70.8% across 195 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday19374.1%15.0%0.0%
Tuesday18978.3%11.6%1.1%
Wednesday18476.1%13.6%1.1%
Thursday19178.5%10.5%1.0%
Friday18574.1%15.7%1.6%
Saturday18775.4%13.4%1.1%
Sunday19570.8%16.9%1.5%

Which airline was most reliable for SMF to ORD?

Among qualifying SMF-to-ORD airline results, United Airlines had the highest on-time rate: 78.1% of 987 flights. American Airlines was lowest at 67.1% across 337 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
United Airlines98778.1%11.7%1.0%
American Airlines33767.1%20.2%1.2%

Which month was most reliable for SMF to ORD?

Among qualifying SMF-to-ORD month results, February 2026 had the highest on-time rate: 91.1% of 56 flights. July 2025 was lowest at 49.6% across 123 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202512349.6%28.5%0.8%
August 202512066.7%25.0%0.0%
September 202511781.2%7.7%0.0%
October 202512482.3%8.9%0.8%
November 20259172.5%15.4%3.3%
December 20257578.7%14.7%0.0%
January 20266777.6%11.9%0.0%
February 20265691.1%7.1%0.0%
March 202611374.3%14.2%2.7%
April 202614977.9%8.7%2.0%
May 202615285.5%7.2%0.7%
June 202613773.7%15.3%1.5%

What drove SMF to ORD delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded SMF-to-ORD delay category, accounting for 37.0% of 23,495 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline28.3%
Late aircraft37.0%
National airspace33.2%
Weather1.5%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.