BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
ORD→SMF

Chicago, IL (ORD) to Sacramento, CA (SMF) flight delay odds

65.3% of 1,324 official scheduled ORD-to-SMF flights arrived on time; 22.4% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 1.1% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
65.3%arrived on time
22.4%30+ min late
1.1%cancelled
1,324scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late12.3%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late4.2%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.2%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+16.3 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for ORD to SMF?

Among qualifying ORD-to-SMF departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 87.2% of 47 flights. Evening was lowest at 51.6% across 380 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning4787.2%8.5%0.0%
Late morning49277.0%15.2%0.2%
Afternoon37364.6%24.1%0.8%
Evening38051.6%29.5%2.4%

Which weekday was most reliable for ORD to SMF?

Among qualifying ORD-to-SMF weekday results, Tuesday had the highest on-time rate: 73.2% of 190 flights. Saturday was lowest at 60.4% across 182 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday19469.1%19.1%1.5%
Tuesday19073.2%18.9%0.0%
Wednesday18465.8%23.4%0.5%
Thursday19060.5%21.1%2.1%
Friday19064.2%22.6%0.5%
Saturday18260.4%26.4%2.2%
Sunday19463.9%25.3%1.0%

Which airline was most reliable for ORD to SMF?

Among qualifying ORD-to-SMF airline results, United Airlines had the highest on-time rate: 67.6% of 988 flights. American Airlines was lowest at 58.6% across 336 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
United Airlines98867.6%20.1%1.0%
American Airlines33658.6%28.9%1.5%

Which month was most reliable for ORD to SMF?

Among qualifying ORD-to-SMF month results, September 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 79.5% of 117 flights. June 2026 was lowest at 54.7% across 137 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202512357.7%31.7%0.0%
August 202512166.1%25.6%0.0%
September 202511779.5%17.1%0.0%
October 202512371.5%13.8%0.0%
November 20259163.7%18.7%3.3%
December 20257557.3%26.7%0.0%
January 20266764.2%25.4%0.0%
February 20265675.0%10.7%0.0%
March 202611358.4%27.4%2.7%
April 202615061.3%25.3%2.7%
May 202615175.5%12.6%0.7%
June 202613754.7%29.9%2.9%

What drove ORD to SMF delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded ORD-to-SMF delay category, accounting for 47.0% of 28,694 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline30.7%
Late aircraft47.0%
National airspace15.6%
Weather6.6%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.