BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
SMFMSP

Sacramento, CA (SMF) to Minneapolis, MN (MSP) flight delay odds

Historically, 92.0% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 590 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALLower disruption
92.0%arrived on time
4.7%30+ min late
0.7%cancelled
590scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late2.4%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late1.4%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.0%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival-8.1 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning36392.3%4.4%0.8%
Afternoon22791.6%5.3%0.4%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday8690.7%7.0%2.3%
Tuesday8795.4%3.4%0.0%
Wednesday8597.6%2.4%0.0%
Thursday8397.6%0.0%0.0%
Friday8389.2%3.6%0.0%
Saturday8085.0%10.0%1.2%
Sunday8688.4%7.0%1.2%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Delta Air Lines59092.0%4.7%0.7%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20256091.7%6.7%0.0%
August 20256098.3%1.7%0.0%
September 20255596.4%1.8%0.0%
October 20255898.3%1.7%0.0%
November 20255793.0%5.3%0.0%
December 20256178.7%11.5%3.3%
January 20263473.5%11.8%0.0%
February 20262892.9%3.6%3.6%
March 20263187.1%9.7%3.2%
April 20263093.3%3.3%0.0%
May 20265696.4%1.8%0.0%
June 20266096.7%1.7%0.0%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline61.8%
Late aircraft16.3%
National airspace21.9%
Weather0.0%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.