BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
SMF→MSP

Sacramento, CA (SMF) to Minneapolis, MN (MSP) flight delay odds

92.0% of 590 official scheduled SMF-to-MSP flights arrived on time; 4.7% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 0.7% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALLower disruption
92.0%arrived on time
4.7%30+ min late
0.7%cancelled
590scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late2.4%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late1.4%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.0%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival-8.1 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for SMF to MSP?

Among qualifying SMF-to-MSP departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 92.3% of 363 flights. Afternoon was lowest at 91.6% across 227 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning36392.3%4.4%0.8%
Afternoon22791.6%5.3%0.4%

Which weekday was most reliable for SMF to MSP?

Among qualifying SMF-to-MSP weekday results, Wednesday had the highest on-time rate: 97.6% of 85 flights. Saturday was lowest at 85.0% across 80 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday8690.7%7.0%2.3%
Tuesday8795.4%3.4%0.0%
Wednesday8597.6%2.4%0.0%
Thursday8397.6%0.0%0.0%
Friday8389.2%3.6%0.0%
Saturday8085.0%10.0%1.2%
Sunday8688.4%7.0%1.2%

Which airline was most reliable for SMF to MSP?

Only Delta Air Lines met the SMF-to-MSP airline threshold: 92.0% of 590 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Delta Air Lines59092.0%4.7%0.7%

Which month was most reliable for SMF to MSP?

Among qualifying SMF-to-MSP month results, August 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 98.3% of 60 flights. January 2026 was lowest at 73.5% across 34 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20256091.7%6.7%0.0%
August 20256098.3%1.7%0.0%
September 20255596.4%1.8%0.0%
October 20255898.3%1.7%0.0%
November 20255793.0%5.3%0.0%
December 20256178.7%11.5%3.3%
January 20263473.5%11.8%0.0%
February 20262892.9%3.6%3.6%
March 20263187.1%9.7%3.2%
April 20263093.3%3.3%0.0%
May 20265696.4%1.8%0.0%
June 20266096.7%1.7%0.0%

What drove SMF to MSP delay minutes?

Airline was the largest recorded SMF-to-MSP delay category, accounting for 61.8% of 3,383 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline61.8%
Late aircraft16.3%
National airspace21.9%
Weather0.0%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.