BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MSP→SMF

Minneapolis, MN (MSP) to Sacramento, CA (SMF) flight delay odds

82.0% of 590 official scheduled MSP-to-SMF flights arrived on time; 10.7% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 0.5% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALLower disruption
82.0%arrived on time
10.7%30+ min late
0.5%cancelled
590scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late4.2%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late0.7%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.0%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+2.6 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for MSP to SMF?

Among qualifying MSP-to-SMF departure window results, Late morning had the highest on-time rate: 90.3% of 226 flights. Evening was lowest at 76.8% across 362 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Late morning22690.3%5.8%0.4%
Evening36276.8%13.8%0.6%

Which weekday was most reliable for MSP to SMF?

Among qualifying MSP-to-SMF weekday results, Monday had the highest on-time rate: 88.4% of 86 flights. Thursday was lowest at 77.6% across 85 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday8688.4%5.8%1.2%
Tuesday8781.6%8.0%0.0%
Wednesday8385.5%13.3%0.0%
Thursday8577.6%10.6%0.0%
Friday8381.9%12.0%1.2%
Saturday8078.8%12.5%1.2%
Sunday8680.2%12.8%0.0%

Which airline was most reliable for MSP to SMF?

Only Delta Air Lines met the MSP-to-SMF airline threshold: 82.0% of 590 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Delta Air Lines59082.0%10.7%0.5%

Which month was most reliable for MSP to SMF?

Among qualifying MSP-to-SMF month results, September 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 92.7% of 55 flights. January 2026 was lowest at 54.3% across 35 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20256083.3%8.3%0.0%
August 20256085.0%10.0%0.0%
September 20255592.7%1.8%0.0%
October 20255891.4%0.0%0.0%
November 20255791.2%7.0%0.0%
December 20256058.3%25.0%3.3%
January 20263554.3%31.4%0.0%
February 20262885.7%14.3%0.0%
March 20263167.7%19.4%3.2%
April 20263083.3%3.3%0.0%
May 20265691.1%7.1%0.0%
June 20266086.7%10.0%0.0%

What drove MSP to SMF delay minutes?

Airline was the largest recorded MSP-to-SMF delay category, accounting for 58.8% of 5,472 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline58.8%
Late aircraft17.5%
National airspace21.5%
Weather2.2%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.