BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
SMF→MDW

Sacramento, CA (SMF) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

84.5% of 672 official scheduled SMF-to-MDW flights arrived on time; 6.0% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 0.3% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALLower disruption
84.5%arrived on time
6.0%30+ min late
0.3%cancelled
672scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late1.9%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late0.1%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.9%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival-0.3 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for SMF to MDW?

Among qualifying SMF-to-MDW departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 89.7% of 348 flights. Afternoon was lowest at 64.3% across 112 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning34889.7%4.0%0.3%
Late morning9388.2%4.3%1.1%
Afternoon11264.3%13.4%0.0%
Night11985.7%5.9%0.0%

Which weekday was most reliable for SMF to MDW?

Among qualifying SMF-to-MDW weekday results, Wednesday had the highest on-time rate: 93.3% of 104 flights. Friday was lowest at 76.7% across 103 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday10378.6%7.8%0.0%
Tuesday10688.7%3.8%0.0%
Wednesday10493.3%1.9%1.0%
Thursday10481.7%4.8%1.0%
Friday10376.7%11.7%0.0%
Saturday8287.8%2.4%0.0%
Sunday7085.7%10.0%0.0%

Which airline was most reliable for SMF to MDW?

Only Southwest Airlines met the SMF-to-MDW airline threshold: 84.5% of 672 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines67284.5%6.0%0.3%

Which month was most reliable for SMF to MDW?

Among qualifying SMF-to-MDW month results, February 2026 had the highest on-time rate: 92.9% of 28 flights. January 2026 was lowest at 80.6% across 31 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20258083.8%7.5%0.0%
August 20257885.9%5.1%0.0%
September 20257883.3%9.0%0.0%
October 20255581.8%3.6%0.0%
November 20253183.9%6.5%0.0%
December 20253180.6%3.2%0.0%
January 20263180.6%9.7%0.0%
February 20262892.9%0.0%0.0%
March 20265986.4%3.4%1.7%
April 20266090.0%3.3%0.0%
May 20266285.5%9.7%0.0%
June 20267981.0%6.3%1.3%

What drove SMF to MDW delay minutes?

Airline was the largest recorded SMF-to-MDW delay category, accounting for 40.2% of 3,342 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline40.2%
Late aircraft33.3%
National airspace24.9%
Weather1.6%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.