BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MDW→SMF

Chicago, IL (MDW) to Sacramento, CA (SMF) flight delay odds

68.8% of 670 official scheduled MDW-to-SMF flights arrived on time; 18.1% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 0.7% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
68.8%arrived on time
18.1%30+ min late
0.7%cancelled
670scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late9.9%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late3.6%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.1%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+15.1 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for MDW to SMF?

Among qualifying MDW-to-SMF departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 86.7% of 211 flights. Night was lowest at 47.5% across 158 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning21186.7%4.7%0.5%
Late morning13666.2%17.6%1.5%
Afternoon8071.2%17.5%0.0%
Evening8565.9%17.6%0.0%
Night15847.5%36.7%1.3%

Which weekday was most reliable for MDW to SMF?

Among qualifying MDW-to-SMF weekday results, Tuesday had the highest on-time rate: 76.4% of 106 flights. Sunday was lowest at 55.1% across 69 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday10361.2%22.3%1.0%
Tuesday10676.4%11.3%1.9%
Wednesday10373.8%16.5%0.0%
Thursday10472.1%17.3%1.0%
Friday10368.0%25.2%0.0%
Saturday8270.7%12.2%1.2%
Sunday6955.1%21.7%0.0%

Which airline was most reliable for MDW to SMF?

Only Southwest Airlines met the MDW-to-SMF airline threshold: 68.8% of 670 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines67068.8%18.1%0.7%

Which month was most reliable for MDW to SMF?

Among qualifying MDW-to-SMF month results, October 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 87.3% of 55 flights. June 2026 was lowest at 50.6% across 79 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20258061.2%26.2%1.2%
August 20257867.9%21.8%0.0%
September 20257882.1%6.4%0.0%
October 20255587.3%3.6%0.0%
November 20253086.7%6.7%6.7%
December 20253154.8%25.8%0.0%
January 20263183.9%6.5%0.0%
February 20262885.7%3.6%0.0%
March 20265862.1%29.3%3.4%
April 20266063.3%20.0%0.0%
May 20266264.5%12.9%0.0%
June 20267950.6%32.9%0.0%

What drove MDW to SMF delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded MDW-to-SMF delay category, accounting for 49.4% of 11,778 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline31.2%
Late aircraft49.4%
National airspace15.2%
Weather4.2%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.