BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
SDFORD

Louisville, KY (SDF) to Chicago, IL (ORD) flight delay odds

Historically, 76.7% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 2,807 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
76.7%arrived on time
13.7%30+ min late
2.8%cancelled
2,807scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late8.1%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late3.7%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.1%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+7.1 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning1,03383.3%8.8%1.9%
Late morning62285.4%8.8%1.4%
Afternoon57471.1%20.0%2.6%
Evening57761.0%21.5%5.9%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday41976.4%13.4%3.8%
Tuesday39677.5%13.6%2.8%
Wednesday40177.1%12.2%3.7%
Thursday41482.4%6.5%2.7%
Friday40572.8%16.5%2.0%
Saturday36775.5%16.3%1.9%
Sunday40574.8%17.8%2.7%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Republic Airways1,73680.2%10.7%2.7%
SkyWest Airlines64567.9%20.2%3.9%
Envoy Air41676.0%15.9%1.4%
United Airlines650.0%50.0%0.0%
American Airlines366.7%33.3%0.0%
PSA Airlines10.0%0.0%100.0%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202525969.1%20.5%2.7%
August 202524279.3%9.9%3.3%
September 202522289.2%6.8%0.5%
October 202525683.2%10.2%0.0%
November 202519470.6%14.9%6.2%
December 202517974.3%17.9%2.2%
January 202618272.5%16.5%3.8%
February 202619874.7%14.6%0.0%
March 202622172.4%13.1%5.0%
April 202631173.3%15.4%3.9%
May 202631281.1%11.5%2.2%
June 202623177.5%14.7%4.3%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline17.4%
Late aircraft37.6%
National airspace39.1%
Weather5.9%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.