BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
ORD→SDF

Chicago, IL (ORD) to Louisville, KY (SDF) flight delay odds

72.7% of 2,804 official scheduled ORD-to-SDF flights arrived on time; 16.7% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 3.3% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
72.7%arrived on time
16.7%30+ min late
3.3%cancelled
2,804scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late9.5%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late3.8%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.2%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+9.3 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for ORD to SDF?

Among qualifying ORD-to-SDF departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 86.5% of 340 flights. Night was lowest at 66.4% across 137 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning34086.5%7.1%0.9%
Late morning52673.0%18.3%1.5%
Afternoon64371.7%16.8%3.3%
Evening1,15869.8%19.1%4.2%
Night13766.4%14.6%8.8%

Which weekday was most reliable for ORD to SDF?

Among qualifying ORD-to-SDF weekday results, Tuesday had the highest on-time rate: 76.1% of 398 flights. Monday was lowest at 67.8% across 419 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday41967.8%21.2%5.7%
Tuesday39876.1%14.8%3.0%
Wednesday39975.4%17.8%2.5%
Thursday41375.5%12.8%3.4%
Friday40573.6%15.8%2.7%
Saturday36671.6%15.0%3.3%
Sunday40468.8%19.3%2.5%

Which airline was most reliable for ORD to SDF?

Among qualifying ORD-to-SDF airline results, Envoy Air had the highest on-time rate: 83.1% of 415 flights. SkyWest Airlines was lowest at 68.7% across 645 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Republic Airways1,73371.9%17.4%3.9%
SkyWest Airlines64568.7%18.0%3.1%
Envoy Air41583.1%11.3%1.2%
United Airlines633.3%33.3%0.0%
American Airlines450.0%50.0%0.0%
PSA Airlines10.0%0.0%100.0%

Which month was most reliable for ORD to SDF?

Among qualifying ORD-to-SDF month results, September 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 88.3% of 222 flights. December 2025 was lowest at 62.0% across 179 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202525964.9%27.8%1.9%
August 202524278.9%12.0%3.3%
September 202522288.3%6.8%0.5%
October 202525685.2%9.0%0.0%
November 202519471.6%16.0%8.8%
December 202517962.0%31.3%1.1%
January 202618163.0%25.4%3.3%
February 202619872.2%15.2%1.0%
March 202621963.9%20.1%7.3%
April 202631270.2%14.4%4.5%
May 202631176.8%14.8%1.9%
June 202623169.3%13.9%6.9%

What drove ORD to SDF delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded ORD-to-SDF delay category, accounting for 50.6% of 47,649 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline22.1%
Late aircraft50.6%
National airspace20.1%
Weather7.2%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.