BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
SDFMSP

Louisville, KY (SDF) to Minneapolis, MN (MSP) flight delay odds

Historically, 81.1% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 593 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALLower disruption
81.1%arrived on time
12.3%30+ min late
1.2%cancelled
593scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late6.1%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late3.2%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.0%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+5.8 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning17788.7%5.6%1.7%
Afternoon32477.2%15.4%1.2%
Evening9280.4%14.1%0.0%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday8977.5%11.2%1.1%
Tuesday8577.6%17.6%1.2%
Wednesday8582.4%10.6%1.2%
Thursday9183.5%11.0%1.1%
Friday9182.4%11.0%0.0%
Saturday6481.2%14.1%0.0%
Sunday8883.0%11.4%3.4%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
SkyWest Airlines59381.1%12.3%1.2%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20256684.8%12.1%1.5%
August 20258184.0%13.6%0.0%
September 20256393.7%1.6%0.0%
October 202510100.0%0.0%0.0%
November 20252100.0%0.0%0.0%
January 20261060.0%30.0%0.0%
February 20263868.4%18.4%0.0%
March 20267576.0%14.7%8.0%
April 20269481.9%12.8%0.0%
May 202611877.1%15.3%0.0%
June 20263680.6%5.6%0.0%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline64.5%
Late aircraft0.0%
National airspace10.0%
Weather25.5%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.