BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
ORDBNA

Chicago, IL (ORD) to Nashville, TN (BNA) flight delay odds

Historically, 66.8% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 5,021 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
66.8%arrived on time
21.4%30+ min late
2.5%cancelled
5,021scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late12.9%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late5.5%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.2%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+19.2 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning92980.3%12.2%0.9%
Late morning67377.3%15.0%1.0%
Afternoon1,76567.0%20.1%1.7%
Evening1,27254.7%30.7%5.0%
Night38254.5%30.6%5.0%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday76762.1%25.3%3.0%
Tuesday70170.0%19.5%1.7%
Wednesday68568.9%20.4%1.2%
Thursday74868.6%19.7%2.3%
Friday74364.7%21.5%2.4%
Saturday62171.8%16.9%3.2%
Sunday75662.7%25.7%3.8%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
SkyWest Airlines1,46758.5%28.2%3.9%
United Airlines1,38169.2%19.5%1.7%
Envoy Air78372.3%16.5%3.2%
Republic Airways56075.4%14.1%1.4%
American Airlines38262.3%27.5%1.8%
Southwest Airlines33869.8%18.0%1.2%
Frontier Airlines8169.1%19.8%3.7%
Spirit Airlines2669.2%15.4%0.0%
PSA Airlines3100.0%0.0%0.0%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202541953.7%29.8%3.1%
August 202541273.3%18.7%2.4%
September 202539779.6%14.1%0.3%
October 202547866.9%20.3%0.0%
November 202542766.5%21.3%4.2%
December 202536455.8%32.7%1.4%
January 202632663.8%22.1%5.5%
February 202632972.3%18.5%0.0%
March 202644757.0%25.7%6.5%
April 202651271.7%17.4%3.3%
May 202649773.8%15.7%1.0%
June 202641364.9%23.5%2.7%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline28.5%
Late aircraft38.1%
National airspace21.3%
Weather12.1%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.