BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
BNAORD

Nashville, TN (BNA) to Chicago, IL (ORD) flight delay odds

Historically, 68.2% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 5,024 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
68.2%arrived on time
20.0%30+ min late
2.8%cancelled
5,024scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late12.7%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late6.0%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.3%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+21.3 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning1,37874.7%16.5%2.2%
Late morning1,21479.7%11.8%2.1%
Afternoon1,64362.4%23.5%2.6%
Evening76350.5%31.6%5.2%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday77162.1%24.6%4.2%
Tuesday69972.2%18.3%1.7%
Wednesday68674.1%16.8%1.7%
Thursday74964.8%20.3%1.9%
Friday74969.2%19.0%2.4%
Saturday61574.6%15.8%2.9%
Sunday75562.6%23.7%4.5%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
SkyWest Airlines1,46763.4%24.3%3.7%
United Airlines1,38070.7%17.5%2.1%
Envoy Air78269.8%17.4%3.8%
Republic Airways56271.5%15.8%2.1%
American Airlines38464.3%28.1%1.8%
Southwest Airlines33875.1%13.6%1.5%
Frontier Airlines8165.4%25.9%3.7%
Spirit Airlines2766.7%11.1%0.0%
PSA Airlines366.7%33.3%0.0%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202541955.6%31.3%2.6%
August 202541371.4%18.6%2.7%
September 202539781.1%11.3%0.3%
October 202547872.6%17.6%0.2%
November 202542765.3%20.6%5.4%
December 202536765.4%23.2%0.8%
January 202632668.1%18.4%6.1%
February 202632971.1%18.5%0.0%
March 202644659.6%24.4%6.7%
April 202651268.8%17.0%3.5%
May 202649772.2%15.9%2.0%
June 202641367.3%23.5%2.9%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline35.3%
Late aircraft28.2%
National airspace29.5%
Weather7.0%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.