BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MSPTPA

Minneapolis, MN (MSP) to Tampa, FL (TPA) flight delay odds

Historically, 79.7% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 1,179 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
79.7%arrived on time
12.6%30+ min late
0.9%cancelled
1,179scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late6.6%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.0%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.2%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+4.5 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning33987.0%6.8%0.9%
Late morning19576.4%14.9%1.5%
Afternoon29882.6%10.4%1.3%
Evening34772.0%18.7%0.3%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday17780.2%15.3%0.6%
Tuesday16385.3%9.2%1.2%
Wednesday16582.4%7.3%0.0%
Thursday17385.5%8.7%0.6%
Friday17580.0%12.6%0.0%
Saturday14772.8%17.7%0.7%
Sunday17971.5%17.3%3.4%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Delta Air Lines1,17979.7%12.6%0.9%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202511471.1%22.8%0.0%
August 20259179.1%14.3%0.0%
September 20257286.1%6.9%0.0%
October 20258085.0%10.0%0.0%
November 20258184.0%7.4%1.2%
December 20259865.3%20.4%3.1%
January 20269576.8%12.6%1.1%
February 20268485.7%8.3%0.0%
March 202611776.1%12.0%5.1%
April 202612091.7%6.7%0.0%
May 202611778.6%12.0%0.0%
June 202611080.9%13.6%0.0%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline55.5%
Late aircraft14.6%
National airspace26.8%
Weather2.9%
Security0.2%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.