BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MSP→SFO

Minneapolis, MN (MSP) to San Francisco, CA (SFO) flight delay odds

69.9% of 1,919 official scheduled MSP-to-SFO flights arrived on time; 18.8% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 0.7% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
69.9%arrived on time
18.8%30+ min late
0.7%cancelled
1,919scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late8.9%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.6%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.2%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+9.6 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for MSP to SFO?

Among qualifying MSP-to-SFO departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 75.6% of 295 flights. Night was lowest at 64.7% across 207 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning29575.6%17.6%0.0%
Late morning58167.6%18.6%1.4%
Afternoon37573.6%16.3%0.5%
Evening46168.3%21.3%0.2%
Night20764.7%20.3%1.0%

Which weekday was most reliable for MSP to SFO?

Among qualifying MSP-to-SFO weekday results, Tuesday had the highest on-time rate: 78.0% of 255 flights. Sunday was lowest at 62.3% across 284 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday28669.6%21.0%0.3%
Tuesday25578.0%15.3%0.0%
Wednesday27470.8%17.5%0.4%
Thursday29267.1%20.9%0.7%
Friday29566.8%19.7%1.0%
Saturday23376.8%13.3%0.4%
Sunday28462.3%22.5%1.8%

Which airline was most reliable for MSP to SFO?

Among qualifying MSP-to-SFO airline results, United Airlines had the highest on-time rate: 72.1% of 301 flights. SkyWest Airlines was lowest at 68.8% across 173 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Delta Air Lines1,44569.6%18.6%0.8%
United Airlines30172.1%20.3%0.3%
SkyWest Airlines17368.8%17.9%0.6%

Which month was most reliable for MSP to SFO?

Among qualifying MSP-to-SFO month results, September 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 89.2% of 157 flights. May 2026 was lowest at 42.0% across 169 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202519375.1%17.1%0.0%
August 202518181.8%11.0%0.0%
September 202515789.2%7.6%0.0%
October 202517078.2%11.8%0.0%
November 202514880.4%15.5%0.7%
December 202513957.6%24.5%2.9%
January 202614276.1%16.9%0.7%
February 202612973.6%14.7%0.0%
March 202614280.3%7.7%3.5%
April 202616663.9%21.1%0.0%
May 202616942.0%40.2%1.2%
June 202618344.8%33.9%0.0%

What drove MSP to SFO delay minutes?

National airspace was the largest recorded MSP-to-SFO delay category, accounting for 53.8% of 32,311 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline28.3%
Late aircraft17.1%
National airspace53.8%
Weather0.8%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.