BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MSPSFO

Minneapolis, MN (MSP) to San Francisco, CA (SFO) flight delay odds

Historically, 69.9% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 1,919 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
69.9%arrived on time
18.8%30+ min late
0.7%cancelled
1,919scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late8.9%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.6%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.2%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+9.6 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning29575.6%17.6%0.0%
Late morning58167.6%18.6%1.4%
Afternoon37573.6%16.3%0.5%
Evening46168.3%21.3%0.2%
Night20764.7%20.3%1.0%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday28669.6%21.0%0.3%
Tuesday25578.0%15.3%0.0%
Wednesday27470.8%17.5%0.4%
Thursday29267.1%20.9%0.7%
Friday29566.8%19.7%1.0%
Saturday23376.8%13.3%0.4%
Sunday28462.3%22.5%1.8%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Delta Air Lines1,44569.6%18.6%0.8%
United Airlines30172.1%20.3%0.3%
SkyWest Airlines17368.8%17.9%0.6%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202519375.1%17.1%0.0%
August 202518181.8%11.0%0.0%
September 202515789.2%7.6%0.0%
October 202517078.2%11.8%0.0%
November 202514880.4%15.5%0.7%
December 202513957.6%24.5%2.9%
January 202614276.1%16.9%0.7%
February 202612973.6%14.7%0.0%
March 202614280.3%7.7%3.5%
April 202616663.9%21.1%0.0%
May 202616942.0%40.2%1.2%
June 202618344.8%33.9%0.0%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline28.3%
Late aircraft17.1%
National airspace53.8%
Weather0.8%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.