BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MSP→MDW

Minneapolis, MN (MSP) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

76.7% of 2,499 official scheduled MSP-to-MDW flights arrived on time; 13.4% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 1.6% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
76.7%arrived on time
13.4%30+ min late
1.6%cancelled
2,499scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late6.2%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.1%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.3%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+6.6 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for MSP to MDW?

Among qualifying MSP-to-MDW departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 85.0% of 725 flights. Evening was lowest at 67.3% across 309 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning72585.0%7.9%1.5%
Late morning69178.6%10.9%1.9%
Afternoon77471.1%18.1%1.0%
Evening30967.3%20.4%2.3%

Which weekday was most reliable for MSP to MDW?

Among qualifying MSP-to-MDW weekday results, Tuesday had the highest on-time rate: 80.8% of 364 flights. Sunday was lowest at 71.5% across 355 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday37875.9%11.9%1.9%
Tuesday36480.8%11.3%0.8%
Wednesday35877.9%12.3%0.8%
Thursday37179.0%13.2%1.1%
Friday36972.6%16.0%1.4%
Saturday30479.6%11.8%2.6%
Sunday35571.5%17.2%2.5%

Which airline was most reliable for MSP to MDW?

Among qualifying MSP-to-MDW airline results, Southwest Airlines had the highest on-time rate: 77.5% of 1,608 flights. SkyWest Airlines was lowest at 75.3% across 891 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines1,60877.5%11.9%1.7%
SkyWest Airlines89175.3%16.0%1.3%

Which month was most reliable for MSP to MDW?

Among qualifying MSP-to-MDW month results, October 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 89.8% of 246 flights. December 2025 was lowest at 61.9% across 215 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202524973.5%16.5%1.2%
August 202523875.6%16.0%0.8%
September 202523282.3%8.6%0.4%
October 202524689.8%6.5%0.0%
November 202521480.4%8.9%7.5%
December 202521561.9%23.7%0.9%
January 202618668.8%20.4%0.5%
February 202618083.9%10.0%0.0%
March 202622667.7%18.1%4.4%
April 202622081.8%7.3%0.9%
May 202614985.2%6.0%0.0%
June 202614468.1%19.4%1.4%

What drove MSP to MDW delay minutes?

Airline was the largest recorded MSP-to-MDW delay category, accounting for 43.9% of 31,435 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline43.9%
Late aircraft27.2%
National airspace17.0%
Weather11.4%
Security0.5%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.