BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MDW→BUF

Chicago, IL (MDW) to Buffalo, NY (BUF) flight delay odds

73.0% of 829 official scheduled MDW-to-BUF flights arrived on time; 15.6% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 1.3% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
73.0%arrived on time
15.6%30+ min late
1.3%cancelled
829scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late6.0%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late1.8%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.1%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+9.2 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for MDW to BUF?

Among qualifying MDW-to-BUF departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 90.6% of 117 flights. Night was lowest at 55.7% across 61 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning11790.6%5.1%0.9%
Late morning14484.0%6.9%1.4%
Afternoon26073.1%15.4%0.4%
Evening24762.3%23.1%2.0%
Night6155.7%26.2%3.3%

Which weekday was most reliable for MDW to BUF?

Among qualifying MDW-to-BUF weekday results, Tuesday had the highest on-time rate: 78.9% of 128 flights. Saturday was lowest at 68.5% across 73 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday13168.7%17.6%3.1%
Tuesday12878.9%10.9%1.6%
Wednesday12578.4%15.2%0.0%
Thursday12972.9%10.9%1.6%
Friday13070.8%21.5%0.0%
Saturday7368.5%17.8%1.4%
Sunday11370.8%15.9%1.8%

Which airline was most reliable for MDW to BUF?

Only Southwest Airlines met the MDW-to-BUF airline threshold: 73.0% of 829 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines82973.0%15.6%1.3%

Which month was most reliable for MDW to BUF?

Among qualifying MDW-to-BUF month results, April 2026 had the highest on-time rate: 86.6% of 82 flights. June 2026 was lowest at 60.7% across 89 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20259768.0%19.6%1.0%
August 20258473.8%14.3%1.2%
September 20258279.3%6.1%0.0%
October 20255974.6%11.9%0.0%
November 20255773.7%19.3%3.5%
December 20256070.0%23.3%1.7%
January 20263076.7%6.7%3.3%
February 20263063.3%23.3%3.3%
March 20267764.9%22.1%3.9%
April 20268286.6%4.9%0.0%
May 20268281.7%11.0%0.0%
June 20268960.7%24.7%1.1%

What drove MDW to BUF delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded MDW-to-BUF delay category, accounting for 46.3% of 10,551 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline38.7%
Late aircraft46.3%
National airspace10.9%
Weather4.1%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.