BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
BUF→MDW

Buffalo, NY (BUF) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

76.8% of 829 official scheduled BUF-to-MDW flights arrived on time; 13.8% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 1.2% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
76.8%arrived on time
13.8%30+ min late
1.2%cancelled
829scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late6.4%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.1%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.2%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+8.0 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for BUF to MDW?

Among qualifying BUF-to-MDW departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 90.2% of 357 flights. Evening was lowest at 60.7% across 252 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning35790.2%5.3%0.8%
Afternoon17672.7%17.6%1.1%
Evening25260.7%23.4%2.0%

Which weekday was most reliable for BUF to MDW?

Among qualifying BUF-to-MDW weekday results, Tuesday had the highest on-time rate: 81.2% of 128 flights. Sunday was lowest at 69.0% across 113 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday13174.8%13.0%2.3%
Tuesday12881.2%11.7%0.8%
Wednesday12580.8%15.2%0.8%
Thursday13076.9%8.5%0.8%
Friday12977.5%16.3%0.0%
Saturday7376.7%13.7%2.7%
Sunday11369.0%18.6%1.8%

Which airline was most reliable for BUF to MDW?

Only Southwest Airlines met the BUF-to-MDW airline threshold: 76.8% of 829 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines82976.8%13.8%1.2%

Which month was most reliable for BUF to MDW?

Among qualifying BUF-to-MDW month results, January 2026 had the highest on-time rate: 90.0% of 30 flights. March 2026 was lowest at 55.8% across 77 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20259775.3%14.4%1.0%
August 20258478.6%15.5%0.0%
September 20258289.0%3.7%0.0%
October 20255984.7%8.5%0.0%
November 20255680.4%7.1%5.4%
December 20256070.0%23.3%1.7%
January 20263090.0%10.0%0.0%
February 20263086.7%3.3%0.0%
March 20267755.8%29.9%3.9%
April 20268279.3%12.2%0.0%
May 20268274.4%13.4%0.0%
June 20269073.3%14.4%2.2%

What drove BUF to MDW delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded BUF-to-MDW delay category, accounting for 49.6% of 10,236 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline18.2%
Late aircraft49.6%
National airspace32.1%
Weather0.1%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.