BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MDW→BNA

Chicago, IL (MDW) to Nashville, TN (BNA) flight delay odds

78.8% of 1,885 official scheduled MDW-to-BNA flights arrived on time; 12.8% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 1.4% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
78.8%arrived on time
12.8%30+ min late
1.4%cancelled
1,885scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late6.9%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.5%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.1%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+5.4 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for MDW to BNA?

Among qualifying MDW-to-BNA departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 91.8% of 546 flights. Night was lowest at 59.2% across 179 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning54691.8%3.5%1.6%
Late morning29180.4%12.0%0.3%
Afternoon49176.8%12.4%1.2%
Evening37870.6%18.8%1.3%
Night17959.2%30.7%3.4%

Which weekday was most reliable for MDW to BNA?

Among qualifying MDW-to-BNA weekday results, Tuesday had the highest on-time rate: 86.4% of 272 flights. Sunday was lowest at 74.7% across 292 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday28877.1%14.6%2.1%
Tuesday27286.4%8.8%0.0%
Wednesday26381.7%11.0%0.8%
Thursday28777.7%13.2%1.7%
Friday28877.8%14.2%1.4%
Saturday19575.9%8.7%3.1%
Sunday29274.7%17.1%1.4%

Which airline was most reliable for MDW to BNA?

Only Southwest Airlines met the MDW-to-BNA airline threshold: 78.8% of 1,885 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines1,88578.8%12.8%1.4%

Which month was most reliable for MDW to BNA?

Among qualifying MDW-to-BNA month results, September 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 91.8% of 159 flights. July 2025 was lowest at 69.1% across 175 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202517569.1%22.9%1.1%
August 202516876.8%10.7%0.6%
September 202515991.8%5.0%0.0%
October 202516976.9%13.6%0.0%
November 202515880.4%13.3%3.8%
December 202515280.3%10.5%0.0%
January 202613282.6%6.8%5.3%
February 202611989.1%5.9%0.0%
March 202616476.8%16.5%2.4%
April 202616682.5%10.8%1.8%
May 202617273.8%15.7%0.0%
June 202615169.5%17.9%2.6%

What drove MDW to BNA delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded MDW-to-BNA delay category, accounting for 53.0% of 22,861 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline24.8%
Late aircraft53.0%
National airspace18.5%
Weather3.6%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.