BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
BNA→MDW

Nashville, TN (BNA) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

75.0% of 1,893 official scheduled BNA-to-MDW flights arrived on time; 13.9% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 1.4% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
75.0%arrived on time
13.9%30+ min late
1.4%cancelled
1,893scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late5.8%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.0%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.5%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+5.6 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for BNA to MDW?

Among qualifying BNA-to-MDW departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 92.1% of 505 flights. Night was lowest at 60.9% across 184 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning50592.1%3.8%1.6%
Late morning21681.9%7.9%1.4%
Afternoon53971.8%13.0%1.7%
Evening44962.1%24.3%1.1%
Night18460.9%26.1%1.1%

Which weekday was most reliable for BNA to MDW?

Among qualifying BNA-to-MDW weekday results, Saturday had the highest on-time rate: 83.2% of 196 flights. Sunday was lowest at 67.9% across 293 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday28970.9%18.0%1.7%
Tuesday27581.1%11.6%0.0%
Wednesday26781.6%9.0%1.1%
Thursday28472.9%14.4%0.7%
Friday28970.9%15.2%1.4%
Saturday19683.2%6.6%2.6%
Sunday29367.9%19.5%2.7%

Which airline was most reliable for BNA to MDW?

Only Southwest Airlines met the BNA-to-MDW airline threshold: 75.0% of 1,893 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines1,89375.0%13.9%1.4%

Which month was most reliable for BNA to MDW?

Among qualifying BNA-to-MDW month results, September 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 89.9% of 159 flights. June 2026 was lowest at 53.5% across 157 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202517572.0%17.7%1.7%
August 202516874.4%15.5%1.2%
September 202515989.9%2.5%0.0%
October 202517078.8%12.4%0.0%
November 202516078.1%13.1%2.5%
December 202515280.3%13.8%0.0%
January 202613184.7%3.8%6.1%
February 202612082.5%7.5%0.8%
March 202616476.8%14.6%2.4%
April 202616673.5%11.4%1.8%
May 202617160.2%23.4%0.0%
June 202615753.5%26.8%1.3%

What drove BNA to MDW delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded BNA-to-MDW delay category, accounting for 55.3% of 22,430 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline28.0%
Late aircraft55.3%
National airspace13.0%
Weather3.5%
Security0.1%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.