BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MCO→SMF

Orlando, FL (MCO) to Sacramento, CA (SMF) flight delay odds

71.5% of 323 official scheduled MCO-to-SMF flights arrived on time; 13.9% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 0.6% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
71.5%arrived on time
13.9%30+ min late
0.6%cancelled
323scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late8.4%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.2%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.0%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+9.9 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for MCO to SMF?

Among qualifying MCO-to-SMF departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 96.0% of 50 flights. Evening was lowest at 59.5% across 42 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning5096.0%2.0%0.0%
Late morning6877.9%8.8%0.0%
Afternoon16364.4%19.0%0.0%
Evening4259.5%16.7%4.8%

Which weekday was most reliable for MCO to SMF?

Among qualifying MCO-to-SMF weekday results, Thursday had the highest on-time rate: 79.5% of 44 flights. Saturday was lowest at 59.6% across 52 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday4472.7%18.2%0.0%
Tuesday4463.6%18.2%0.0%
Wednesday4374.4%9.3%0.0%
Thursday4479.5%11.4%0.0%
Friday4479.5%9.1%0.0%
Saturday5259.6%19.2%1.9%
Sunday5273.1%11.5%1.9%

Which airline was most reliable for MCO to SMF?

Only Southwest Airlines met the MCO-to-SMF airline threshold: 71.5% of 323 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines32371.5%13.9%0.6%

Which month was most reliable for MCO to SMF?

Among qualifying MCO-to-SMF month results, May 2026 had the highest on-time rate: 90.3% of 31 flights. December 2025 was lowest at 54.8% across 31 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20253164.5%35.5%0.0%
October 20253060.0%16.7%0.0%
November 20253073.3%13.3%0.0%
December 20253154.8%22.6%0.0%
January 20263164.5%9.7%0.0%
February 20262867.9%10.7%0.0%
March 20263180.6%9.7%3.2%
April 20263086.7%3.3%0.0%
May 20263190.3%0.0%3.2%
June 20263063.3%20.0%0.0%

What drove MCO to SMF delay minutes?

Airline was the largest recorded MCO-to-SMF delay category, accounting for 39.7% of 4,651 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline39.7%
Late aircraft38.5%
National airspace16.9%
Weather4.6%
Security0.3%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.