BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MCOSDF

Orlando, FL (MCO) to Louisville, KY (SDF) flight delay odds

Historically, 72.6% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 868 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
72.6%arrived on time
16.7%30+ min late
2.1%cancelled
868scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late8.6%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.3%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.1%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+10.0 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning24688.6%5.7%1.2%
Late morning22583.1%8.0%1.3%
Afternoon6753.7%31.3%1.5%
Evening28260.3%27.0%2.8%
Night4839.6%33.3%6.2%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday11774.4%17.1%2.6%
Tuesday10377.7%12.6%3.9%
Wednesday11681.9%10.3%0.9%
Thursday11676.7%12.9%0.0%
Friday12278.7%9.8%0.8%
Saturday16865.5%21.4%3.0%
Sunday12657.9%29.4%3.2%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines72471.5%17.5%2.1%
Spirit Airlines11679.3%11.2%2.6%
Republic Airways2871.4%17.9%0.0%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20258063.8%27.5%0.0%
August 20255174.5%17.6%0.0%
September 20256295.2%3.2%0.0%
October 20259566.3%20.0%0.0%
November 20256584.6%7.7%4.6%
December 20257460.8%24.3%1.4%
January 20268083.8%7.5%6.2%
February 20267270.8%15.3%2.8%
March 20268763.2%25.3%4.6%
April 20267275.0%13.9%0.0%
May 20266279.0%9.7%1.6%
June 20266863.2%22.1%2.9%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline36.5%
Late aircraft44.1%
National airspace15.8%
Weather3.6%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.