BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MCOMDW

Orlando, FL (MCO) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

Historically, 68.5% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 2,780 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
68.5%arrived on time
17.6%30+ min late
2.0%cancelled
2,780scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late8.6%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.9%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.8%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+13.8 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning55190.4%2.9%1.3%
Late morning50675.9%11.3%2.2%
Afternoon75567.5%18.3%1.7%
Evening79053.3%28.9%1.9%
Night17851.1%28.7%5.6%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday41465.7%21.0%2.2%
Tuesday36772.5%14.4%1.1%
Wednesday35978.8%11.7%0.6%
Thursday40268.7%16.7%1.5%
Friday41770.0%16.1%2.9%
Saturday41266.5%16.5%3.2%
Sunday40958.9%25.9%2.4%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines2,54867.9%17.7%2.1%
Frontier Airlines23274.6%16.4%1.3%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202526166.3%19.5%3.8%
August 202522763.4%21.1%1.8%
September 202521582.3%9.8%0.0%
October 202524668.3%16.3%0.4%
November 202523476.1%10.3%4.3%
December 202524164.3%20.3%0.4%
January 202621371.4%15.0%1.4%
February 202620466.7%20.6%0.0%
March 202628659.4%23.8%5.6%
April 202621973.5%13.2%1.4%
May 202620073.5%15.0%0.5%
June 202623461.1%23.9%3.0%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline31.5%
Late aircraft40.4%
National airspace18.7%
Weather8.6%
Security0.7%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.