BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
BNA→SMF

Nashville, TN (BNA) to Sacramento, CA (SMF) flight delay odds

66.5% of 346 official scheduled BNA-to-SMF flights arrived on time; 15.0% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 0.6% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
66.5%arrived on time
15.0%30+ min late
0.6%cancelled
346scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late6.1%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.3%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.3%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+11.7 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for BNA to SMF?

Only Afternoon met the BNA-to-SMF departure window threshold: 68.1% of 270 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Afternoon27068.1%13.3%0.7%

Which weekday was most reliable for BNA to SMF?

Among qualifying BNA-to-SMF weekday results, Tuesday had the highest on-time rate: 73.3% of 45 flights. Sunday was lowest at 54.0% across 50 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday4963.3%14.3%0.0%
Tuesday4573.3%8.9%0.0%
Wednesday4367.4%14.0%0.0%
Thursday4967.3%12.2%0.0%
Friday4969.4%12.2%0.0%
Saturday6170.5%19.7%1.6%
Sunday5054.0%22.0%2.0%

Which airline was most reliable for BNA to SMF?

Only Southwest Airlines met the BNA-to-SMF airline threshold: 66.5% of 346 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines34666.5%15.0%0.6%

Which month was most reliable for BNA to SMF?

Among qualifying BNA-to-SMF month results, November 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 80.0% of 30 flights. June 2026 was lowest at 44.1% across 34 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20253557.1%20.0%0.0%
August 20253275.0%18.8%0.0%
September 20253063.3%10.0%0.0%
October 20253177.4%9.7%0.0%
November 20253080.0%16.7%0.0%
December 20253167.7%6.5%0.0%
February 20261957.9%10.5%0.0%
March 20262972.4%10.3%0.0%
April 20263070.0%10.0%0.0%
May 20263161.3%19.4%0.0%
June 20263444.1%35.3%0.0%

What drove BNA to SMF delay minutes?

Late aircraft was the largest recorded BNA-to-SMF delay category, accounting for 45.2% of 4,738 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline43.7%
Late aircraft45.2%
National airspace7.2%
Weather3.9%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.