BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
BNAJFK

Nashville, TN (BNA) to New York, NY (JFK) flight delay odds

Historically, 73.4% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 1,470 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALHigher disruption
73.4%arrived on time
15.2%30+ min late
4.1%cancelled
1,470scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late8.5%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.7%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.5%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+7.1 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning47185.1%6.8%3.8%
Late morning32679.1%12.6%1.8%
Afternoon60763.4%21.4%5.8%
Evening6653.0%30.3%3.0%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday21973.5%14.6%5.9%
Tuesday20676.2%9.7%6.3%
Wednesday19876.3%14.6%1.0%
Thursday20267.8%25.2%2.5%
Friday21575.3%14.4%1.9%
Saturday21275.9%14.2%2.4%
Sunday21868.8%13.8%8.7%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Republic Airways92973.7%14.9%3.8%
JetBlue Airways54172.8%15.7%4.8%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202512451.6%26.6%14.5%
August 202511681.9%12.1%0.9%
September 202514488.2%8.3%0.0%
October 202515778.3%12.7%1.3%
November 202514470.1%19.4%2.8%
December 202513162.6%19.1%6.9%
January 202611060.9%18.2%12.7%
February 202610773.8%11.2%8.4%
March 202612576.8%12.0%1.6%
April 202610682.1%10.4%0.0%
May 202610286.3%6.9%0.0%
June 202610467.3%25.0%1.9%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline20.6%
Late aircraft37.9%
National airspace39.4%
Weather2.0%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.