BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
TUS→MDW

Tucson, AZ (TUS) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

80.4% of 317 official scheduled TUS-to-MDW flights arrived on time; 8.8% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 0.9% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALLower disruption
80.4%arrived on time
8.8%30+ min late
0.9%cancelled
317scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late3.5%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late1.9%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.9%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+2.6 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for TUS to MDW?

Among qualifying TUS-to-MDW departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 89.3% of 178 flights. Afternoon was lowest at 63.0% across 100 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning17889.3%5.1%0.6%
Afternoon10063.0%16.0%1.0%

Which weekday was most reliable for TUS to MDW?

Among qualifying TUS-to-MDW weekday results, Saturday had the highest on-time rate: 89.6% of 48 flights. Monday was lowest at 68.8% across 48 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday4868.8%16.7%0.0%
Tuesday4080.0%5.0%0.0%
Wednesday4087.5%7.5%0.0%
Thursday4885.4%8.3%0.0%
Friday4776.6%10.6%2.1%
Saturday4889.6%6.2%2.1%
Sunday4676.1%6.5%2.2%

Which airline was most reliable for TUS to MDW?

Only Southwest Airlines met the TUS-to-MDW airline threshold: 80.4% of 317 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines31780.4%8.8%0.9%

Which month was most reliable for TUS to MDW?

Among qualifying TUS-to-MDW month results, October 2025 had the highest on-time rate: 100.0% of 29 flights. May 2026 was lowest at 46.7% across 30 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20253193.5%3.2%0.0%
August 20252295.5%0.0%4.5%
September 20252190.5%9.5%0.0%
October 202529100.0%0.0%0.0%
November 20253090.0%0.0%3.3%
December 20253190.3%9.7%0.0%
January 20263177.4%12.9%0.0%
February 20262878.6%3.6%0.0%
March 20263164.5%16.1%3.2%
April 20263066.7%13.3%0.0%
May 20263046.7%23.3%0.0%

What drove TUS to MDW delay minutes?

Airline was the largest recorded TUS-to-MDW delay category, accounting for 47.1% of 2,698 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline47.1%
Late aircraft31.5%
National airspace18.2%
Weather3.2%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.