BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
SEAMSP

Seattle, WA (SEA) to Minneapolis, MN (MSP) flight delay odds

Historically, 84.5% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 2,689 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALLower disruption
84.5%arrived on time
7.4%30+ min late
0.9%cancelled
2,689scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late3.5%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late1.7%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.2%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival-1.2 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning85088.6%4.6%1.2%
Late morning43683.9%6.9%0.5%
Afternoon66981.8%9.3%0.6%
Evening46677.7%12.2%1.3%
Night26891.4%4.1%0.7%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday40285.1%7.0%0.5%
Tuesday37986.3%7.9%0.3%
Wednesday37189.2%6.2%0.0%
Thursday40086.0%7.2%0.5%
Friday39982.7%6.5%1.8%
Saturday33882.0%10.4%0.9%
Sunday40080.5%7.0%2.2%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Delta Air Lines1,73687.6%6.6%0.8%
Alaska Airlines95378.9%8.9%1.0%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202529574.9%12.9%0.7%
August 202529176.6%12.4%0.3%
September 202526485.6%4.5%0.4%
October 202523090.0%3.9%1.3%
November 202520287.6%7.9%1.0%
December 202520880.3%11.1%0.5%
January 202616889.3%4.2%0.6%
February 202615888.0%6.3%0.0%
March 202619984.9%5.0%5.0%
April 202619889.9%4.0%0.5%
May 202622591.6%4.0%0.9%
June 202625183.7%8.4%0.0%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline47.5%
Late aircraft30.8%
National airspace17.9%
Weather3.9%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.