BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
PHLMDW

Philadelphia, PA (PHL) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

Historically, 71.6% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 1,528 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALGenerally reliable
71.6%arrived on time
16.5%30+ min late
1.6%cancelled
1,528scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late8.6%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late3.6%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.6%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+14.4 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning39287.0%6.6%1.3%
Late morning21783.4%8.3%1.8%
Afternoon47875.5%13.6%1.7%
Evening42447.4%32.3%1.4%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday23766.2%21.9%2.5%
Tuesday21980.8%10.0%0.9%
Wednesday21378.4%11.7%0.9%
Thursday22767.0%16.7%1.8%
Friday23575.3%14.5%0.4%
Saturday16772.5%15.0%3.0%
Sunday23062.2%24.3%1.7%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines1,45071.3%16.4%1.5%
Frontier Airlines7876.9%17.9%2.6%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202515453.2%33.1%2.6%
August 202515675.0%14.7%0.6%
September 202515984.3%8.2%0.0%
October 202515576.8%14.2%0.0%
November 202513672.1%11.8%5.9%
December 202512259.0%28.7%0.0%
January 20269672.9%15.6%3.1%
February 20268479.8%6.0%3.6%
March 20269361.3%21.5%3.2%
April 202611182.0%5.4%0.0%
May 202611973.9%15.1%0.0%
June 202614369.2%19.6%1.4%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline25.1%
Late aircraft47.3%
National airspace24.7%
Weather2.8%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.