BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
ORDSBN

Chicago, IL (ORD) to South Bend, IN (SBN) flight delay odds

Historically, 59.9% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 2,704 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALHigher disruption
59.9%arrived on time
25.7%30+ min late
4.3%cancelled
2,704scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late15.6%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late7.7%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.1%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+27.5 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning13468.7%16.4%3.0%
Late morning50565.3%21.8%2.4%
Afternoon98760.9%25.2%4.3%
Evening71751.6%32.8%4.9%
Night36162.9%22.2%6.1%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday39255.4%24.5%7.4%
Tuesday39365.9%22.1%2.5%
Wednesday38561.0%24.4%4.9%
Thursday38362.7%21.9%3.9%
Friday38361.6%26.4%3.7%
Saturday37259.4%28.0%3.2%
Sunday39653.5%32.8%4.0%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
SkyWest Airlines2,69259.8%25.8%4.3%
United Airlines1090.0%10.0%0.0%
Republic Airways2100.0%0.0%0.0%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202518448.9%38.0%2.2%
August 202518662.9%26.3%4.8%
September 202520677.7%14.6%1.0%
October 202524178.0%15.8%0.0%
November 202523160.2%18.6%8.7%
December 202524353.1%37.0%4.9%
January 202624754.3%30.4%5.3%
February 202621960.7%24.2%0.0%
March 202624848.8%29.0%9.3%
April 202623648.3%32.2%6.8%
May 202625364.4%22.9%1.6%
June 202621062.9%20.0%5.7%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline35.3%
Late aircraft38.2%
National airspace19.0%
Weather7.4%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.