BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
ORDMSN

Chicago, IL (ORD) to Madison, WI (MSN) flight delay odds

Historically, 68.7% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 4,029 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
68.7%arrived on time
19.7%30+ min late
3.8%cancelled
4,029scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late11.5%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late5.0%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.1%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+17.2 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning45682.2%11.0%1.1%
Late morning51772.1%18.6%2.7%
Afternoon1,30371.2%19.0%3.3%
Evening1,13863.8%21.8%4.5%
Night61559.3%24.9%6.5%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday60966.3%22.2%4.8%
Tuesday56973.8%17.6%2.5%
Wednesday55369.4%18.6%2.5%
Thursday58866.8%21.9%3.7%
Friday58768.1%17.9%4.3%
Saturday52970.5%17.8%3.2%
Sunday59466.2%21.5%5.4%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
SkyWest Airlines1,26663.5%24.2%5.1%
Envoy Air1,06873.8%15.4%3.9%
United Airlines93667.3%20.6%2.0%
Republic Airways65176.3%14.0%2.5%
PSA Airlines10844.4%36.1%10.2%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202526166.7%23.4%4.2%
August 202532775.8%16.2%2.1%
September 202533676.5%13.4%0.0%
October 202535374.2%17.3%0.0%
November 202537063.2%19.2%10.0%
December 202530055.0%31.7%4.3%
January 202631855.7%32.1%2.5%
February 202626272.1%19.1%0.4%
March 202634462.5%20.3%10.5%
April 202642768.6%18.7%5.4%
May 202640376.7%15.6%1.0%
June 202632874.4%13.1%4.0%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline26.5%
Late aircraft41.3%
National airspace16.5%
Weather15.5%
Security0.1%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.