BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
ORDBUF

Chicago, IL (ORD) to Buffalo, NY (BUF) flight delay odds

Historically, 68.6% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 2,195 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
68.6%arrived on time
20.0%30+ min late
2.6%cancelled
2,195scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late11.7%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late5.1%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.3%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+17.5 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning49485.0%7.7%1.4%
Late morning22869.7%18.4%3.9%
Afternoon69672.8%16.7%3.2%
Evening68555.9%30.8%2.2%
Night9239.1%35.9%5.4%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday32568.6%19.4%2.8%
Tuesday31772.9%17.7%1.9%
Wednesday31369.0%21.7%1.6%
Thursday32470.7%17.9%2.2%
Friday31768.5%18.9%1.9%
Saturday28471.1%19.0%2.8%
Sunday31559.4%25.7%5.4%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
United Airlines61272.9%17.0%1.1%
American Airlines47658.0%30.3%1.3%
Envoy Air42277.5%13.5%2.6%
Republic Airways35570.1%16.1%5.1%
SkyWest Airlines33062.7%23.6%4.8%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 202521461.7%31.8%0.0%
August 202518373.2%18.0%1.6%
September 202517977.7%12.8%0.6%
October 202518175.7%11.6%0.0%
November 202518969.3%15.9%6.3%
December 202516563.6%23.0%4.8%
January 202616467.1%20.7%5.5%
February 202612770.1%19.7%0.8%
March 202618258.8%28.6%5.5%
April 202618566.5%18.4%3.2%
May 202621770.5%18.0%1.4%
June 202620969.4%20.6%2.4%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline27.5%
Late aircraft48.5%
National airspace15.7%
Weather8.3%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.