BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
OAK→MDW

Oakland, CA (OAK) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

Historically, 84.4% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 482 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALLower disruption
84.4%arrived on time
6.4%30+ min late
0.2%cancelled
482scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late1.7%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late0.0%all scheduled flights
Diverted1.0%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival-0.7 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning24388.5%2.5%0.4%
Late morning8884.1%6.8%0.0%
Night11878.0%11.9%0.0%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday6985.5%5.8%0.0%
Tuesday7085.7%5.7%0.0%
Wednesday6988.4%2.9%0.0%
Thursday6988.4%4.3%0.0%
Friday6987.0%4.3%0.0%
Saturday6274.2%8.1%1.6%
Sunday7481.1%13.5%0.0%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines48284.4%6.4%0.2%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20253591.4%2.9%0.0%
August 20253683.3%11.1%0.0%
September 20253491.2%0.0%0.0%
October 20253597.1%0.0%0.0%
November 20253369.7%12.1%0.0%
December 20253384.8%3.0%0.0%
January 20263287.5%6.2%0.0%
February 20262892.9%3.6%0.0%
March 20265581.8%3.6%1.8%
April 20265390.6%3.8%0.0%
May 20265284.6%5.8%0.0%
June 20265667.9%19.6%0.0%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline36.6%
Late aircraft43.3%
National airspace20.1%
Weather0.0%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.