BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MIAMDW

Miami, FL (MIA) to Chicago, IL (MDW) flight delay odds

Historically, 69.9% of scheduled reportable flights on this direction arrived on time in July 2025–June 2026. The sample includes 511 flights.

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALVariable
69.9%arrived on time
17.0%30+ min late
1.8%cancelled
511scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late8.2%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late2.9%all scheduled flights
Diverted1.0%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+11.7 mincompleted flights

When is this route most reliable?

The same route can behave differently through the day. These are scheduled departure windows, not actual departure times. Small time windows with fewer than 40 flights are withheld.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning17084.1%7.1%3.5%
Late morning5877.6%15.5%0.0%
Afternoon19465.5%18.0%0.5%
Evening8747.1%35.6%2.3%

Weekday comparison

Day-of-week results use at least 30 scheduled flights per row. Look for broad patterns, not tiny percentage differences.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday7876.9%14.1%1.3%
Tuesday4170.7%4.9%4.9%
Wednesday4475.0%9.1%0.0%
Thursday7574.7%12.0%1.3%
Friday7573.3%16.0%1.3%
Saturday10959.6%22.0%3.7%
Sunday8966.3%28.1%0.0%

Airline comparison

Marketing-carrier results make codeshare flights easier to compare as travelers buy them. Dedicated route-airline reports require at least 160 flights.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines44768.9%17.4%1.8%
Frontier Airlines6476.6%14.1%1.6%

Monthly trend

Month-by-month results show whether a twelve-month average hides an unusual period.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20253989.7%5.1%2.6%
August 20252958.6%24.1%0.0%
September 20252584.0%8.0%0.0%
October 20252475.0%16.7%0.0%
November 20253974.4%7.7%7.7%
December 20254564.4%22.2%2.2%
January 20265178.4%13.7%2.0%
February 20263857.9%21.1%0.0%
March 20267960.8%25.3%2.5%
April 20265869.0%10.3%1.7%
May 20265369.8%20.8%0.0%
June 20263167.7%22.6%0.0%

What drove reported delay minutes?

BTS cause minutes are reported for qualifying delayed flights. These shares describe recorded delay minutes—not the chance that a particular cause will affect your next flight.

Airline41.6%
Late aircraft32.8%
National airspace22.0%
Weather3.6%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.