BTS DATA COMPLETE THROUGH JUNE 2026HISTORICAL ODDS · NOT LIVE FLIGHT STATUS
DelayOddsKnow the route before you book
MDW→SFO

Chicago, IL (MDW) to San Francisco, CA (SFO) flight delay odds

48.6% of 455 official scheduled MDW-to-SFO flights arrived on time; 35.8% arrived at least 30 minutes late and 1.3% were cancelled during July 2025–June 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Reporting window: July 2025–June 2026 · Updated September 16, 2026

HISTORICAL ROUTE SIGNALHigher disruption
48.6%arrived on time
35.8%30+ min late
1.3%cancelled
455scheduled flights
Based on July 2025–June 2026; on time means arrival less than 15 minutes late.
60+ minutes late15.2%all scheduled flights
120+ minutes late5.5%all scheduled flights
Diverted0.2%did not reach as scheduled
Average arrival+27.1 mincompleted flights

Which departure time was most reliable for MDW to SFO?

Among qualifying MDW-to-SFO departure window results, Early morning had the highest on-time rate: 75.0% of 96 flights. Night was lowest at 34.9% across 106 flights.

Departure windowFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Early morning9675.0%15.6%0.0%
Late morning14939.6%45.6%0.7%
Afternoon9253.3%23.9%2.2%
Night10634.9%50.9%2.8%

Which weekday was most reliable for MDW to SFO?

Among qualifying MDW-to-SFO weekday results, Saturday had the highest on-time rate: 58.0% of 69 flights. Wednesday was lowest at 40.7% across 59 flights.

DayFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Monday6645.5%37.9%0.0%
Tuesday6253.2%32.3%0.0%
Wednesday5940.7%40.7%0.0%
Thursday6651.5%40.9%4.5%
Friday6645.5%42.4%0.0%
Saturday6958.0%21.7%2.9%
Sunday6744.8%35.8%1.5%

Which airline was most reliable for MDW to SFO?

Only Southwest Airlines met the MDW-to-SFO airline threshold: 48.6% of 455 scheduled flights arrived on time during July 2025–June 2026.

AirlineFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
Southwest Airlines45548.6%35.8%1.3%

Which month was most reliable for MDW to SFO?

Among qualifying MDW-to-SFO month results, February 2026 had the highest on-time rate: 84.2% of 19 flights. May 2026 was lowest at 19.4% across 62 flights.

MonthFlightsOn time30+ minCancelled
July 20253158.1%25.8%3.2%
August 20253180.6%9.7%0.0%
September 20253080.0%16.7%0.0%
October 20253154.8%12.9%0.0%
November 20253070.0%6.7%3.3%
December 20253154.8%35.5%0.0%
February 20261984.2%0.0%0.0%
March 20265653.6%26.8%5.4%
April 20266023.3%50.0%1.7%
May 20266219.4%71.0%0.0%
June 20266028.3%61.7%0.0%

What drove MDW to SFO delay minutes?

National airspace was the largest recorded MDW-to-SFO delay category, accounting for 40.8% of 13,082 BTS-attributed delay minutes during July 2025–June 2026.

Airline23.9%
Late aircraft32.5%
National airspace40.8%
Weather2.8%
Security0.0%
This is historical evidence, not a forecast.

Weather, schedules and operations change. For a trip you have already booked, use the airline or airport for live status.